IMF upgrades 2026 world economic growth forecast

The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday nudged its 2026 global growth forecast to 3.1 percent, up 0.1 percentage point from its July projection, as economies lifted by the artificial intelligence investment boom offset those hurt by the Middle East conflict. In its latest World Economic Outlook, titled "Resilience Under Strain, Urgent Choices," the IMF projected global growth slowing from 3.5 percent in 2025 to 3.1 percent in 2026, before recovering to 3.4 percent in 2027. The 2027 figure is unchanged from the July forecast and 0.2 percentage points higher than the April forecast. The fund described the world economy as neither simply slowing nor accelerating but having growth reallocated according to each country's exposure to the war-driven energy shock and to AI-related demand. The strongest performers combine limited energy vulnerability with deep ties to the AI hardware supply chain. The strong demand for AI has bolstered growth in China, India and other Asian countries, outpacing the overall growth in global trade, IMF chief economist Silvana Tenreyro said. Global trade would have grown at a far slower rate without the AI boost, she said. By contrast, energy importers with little connection to the technology cycle, including many low-income countries, face the hardest mix of higher import bills, weaker...